Trump and Xi Jingping summit: How are the United States and China redefining their relationship?

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As tensions over trade, Taiwan, technology, and global influence intensify, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may determine the future balance of power between Washington and Beijing. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis "We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple. The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to become their partner. For many years, the United States alone maintained maritime security; The fifth US ship in Manama, Bahrain, worked only to keep o...
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Hormuz Reopens, Oil Crashes — But Why Gas Prices Won’t Fall Fast

Markets rally after U.S.-Iran signal shipping restart, but delays, damage, and risk keep fuel prices elevated


SULAIMANI, April 18 (Kurdish Policy Analysis) — Oil prices plunged and global equities rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran signaled that the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened to commercial traffic following nearly seven weeks of conflict.

Crude benchmarks fell by around 10% on Friday, reflecting expectations that oil flows from the Persian Gulf would resume. However, analysts warned that relief at the pump will lag behind the drop in crude prices.

The U.S. average gasoline price stood at $4.08 per gallon on Friday, still sharply elevated compared to pre-war levels despite easing slightly in recent days.

Energy experts say the delay reflects logistical realities rather than market inefficiency. Oil tankers must clear congestion, travel long distances to refineries, and undergo processing before fuel reaches consumers — a chain that can take weeks or months.

“The historical observation is that gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly,” said Mark Barteau, a chemical engineering professor at Texas A&M University, citing transport, refining, and distribution delays.

While the reopening of Hormuz has triggered optimism, uncertainty remains over security conditions, insurance costs, and the willingness of shipping firms to resume operations in a region still emerging from active conflict.

NEWS

  • Oil prices dropped roughly 10% after Hormuz reopening announcement
  • U.S. gasoline prices remain elevated despite early declines
  • Over 150 tankers reportedly stranded, creating congestion in the strait
  • Analysts warn normalization could take months despite ceasefire signals
  • Damage to regional energy infrastructure continues to affect supply

CONTEXT

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handling about 20% of global oil trade. During the recent U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, shipping disruptions, naval risks, and insurance costs surged.

Even with the strait now declared open, several structural challenges remain:

  • Maritime congestion: Dozens of tankers remain backed up
  • Security risks: Potential mines and lingering military tensions
  • Infrastructure damage: Refineries and terminals across the region impacted
  • Insurance premiums: War-risk coverage still elevated

European leaders, including those from France and the United Kingdom, welcomed the reopening but stressed the need for long-term guarantees of safe navigation.

ANALYSIS

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a market-moving event — but not an immediate consumer-level solution.

Three key dynamics explain why:

1. Time Lag in the Oil Chain

Even under ideal conditions, crude takes weeks to reach refineries and additional time to become usable fuel. Analysts estimate 10 weeks to 3 months before meaningful normalization.

2. Risk Premium Still Embedded

Markets may have dropped prices, but shipping companies remain cautious. War-risk insurance, unclear security guarantees, and political uncertainty continue to inflate costs.

3. Physical and Structural Constraints

  • Tanker congestion (150+ vessels)
  • Possible naval mines
  • Damaged infrastructure across Gulf producers
  • Production disruptions during the war

Even optimistic forecasts suggest gradual relief:

  • Short-term: small daily declines in fuel prices
  • Medium-term: potential $0.50 drop within weeks
  • Full normalization: late 2026 or beyond

Bottom line: Markets react instantly. Energy systems do not.


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