Trump and Xi Jingping summit: How are the United States and China redefining their relationship?

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As tensions over trade, Taiwan, technology, and global influence intensify, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may determine the future balance of power between Washington and Beijing. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis "We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple. The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to become their partner. For many years, the United States alone maintained maritime security; The fifth US ship in Manama, Bahrain, worked only to keep o...
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Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses to near-zero despite truce hitting Iraq hard

 Hormuz Shipping Collapse Disrupts Global Oil as War Fallout Deepens. Traffic through key oil chokepoint plunges despite truce, hitting Iraq and Gulf exports hard


SULAIMANI, April 11 (Kurdish Policy Analysis)

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically in April, signaling a deepening disruption to global energy flows despite a temporary truce in the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran.

New data released by S&P Global indicates that crude oil loading has effectively halted at key Gulf export terminals, including facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

TRAFFIC COLLAPSE

Vessel movement through the strategic waterway has plunged:

  • April 9: Just 12 ships transited the strait
  • Normal average:  135 ships per day

This represents one of the sharpest slowdowns in recent history, effectively paralyzing a corridor that carries nearly 20% of global oil supply.

OIL FLOWS DISRUPTED

The disruption has impacted approximately:

  • 14.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and condensates

Meanwhile, Iranian exports stood at around:

  • 1.38 million bpd, reflecting partial continuity despite the conflict

The Strait has remained largely non-functional since late February, following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, which triggered heightened military risks across Gulf waters.

IRAQ HIT HARDEST

Despite earlier exemptions allowing Iraqi tankers to pass, Iraq’s oil sector has suffered a severe contraction:

  • Production: Dropped from ~3.5 million bpd to ~1.3 million bpd
  • Exports: Fell to  800,000 bpd

The sharp decline underscores Iraq’s vulnerability to maritime disruptions, given its heavy reliance on Gulf export routes.

TRUCE FAILS TO RESTORE FLOW

A recently announced two-week truce has so far failed to restore confidence in maritime transit. Shipping firms remain reluctant to resume normal operations amid:

  • Ongoing military risks
  • Uncertainty over enforcement of the ceasefire
  • Lack of clear security guarantees in the Strait

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

The continued disruption raises alarm across global energy markets:

  • Supply constraints could push oil prices higher
  • Energy-importing countries face increased vulnerability
  • Strategic reserves may come under pressure if disruption persists

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint where geopolitical conflict translates directly into economic shockwaves.

ANALYSIS

The data suggests that the Strait is not merely under tension—it is operating under de facto closure conditions, even without an official blockade.

While the truce may have paused direct confrontation, it has not restored trust, security, or normal shipping behavior.

As long as military risks remain elevated, the flow of oil through Hormuz will continue to serve as a barometer of regional stability—and a warning signal for the global economy.

#StraitOfHormuz #OilCrisis #Iran #Iraq #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy

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