Trump and Xi Jingping summit: How are the United States and China redefining their relationship?

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As tensions over trade, Taiwan, technology, and global influence intensify, the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may determine the future balance of power between Washington and Beijing. By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Sulaimani, Iraq | 13 May 2026 — Kurdish Policy Analysis "We don't have permanent allies and we don't have permanent enemies, only our interests are permanent, and we have to follow them." – Henry John Temple. The root of the current Strait of Hormuz tensions is not only about shipping routes or oil prices, but also about the final collapse of the historical US concept towards Beijing. However, the 2025 National Security Strategy, released by the White House in November, says this was a historic mistake because China used the assets it accumulated to strengthen itself and compete with the West, not to become their partner. For many years, the United States alone maintained maritime security; The fifth US ship in Manama, Bahrain, worked only to keep o...
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Iran Warns: Strait of Hormuz Security Comes at a Price


Iran warns Strait of Hormuz security ‘not free’ amid rising oil tensions and Tehran links global oil flow to sanctions relief as U.S. tensions escalate

By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj, SULAIMANI,  Kurdish Policy Analysis, April 20 — Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Arif warned on Monday that security in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed if Iranian oil exports remain under restriction, signaling a potential escalation in tensions over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

In a statement posted on X on April 20, Arif said, “Iranian oil exports cannot be limited while others benefit from free security,” adding that “the security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free.”

He further warned that global energy stability depends on ending economic and military pressure on Iran, stating: “There must be a free oil market for everyone—or everyone will pay a high price.”

Context: Rising confrontation at a global chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial portion of the world’s oil shipments, making it a focal point of geopolitical risk.

Arif’s remarks come amid intensifying confrontation between Iran and the United States following a new wave of maritime sanctions. Washington has imposed stricter controls on Iranian shipping and port access since mid-April, targeting Tehran’s ability to export oil.

Tensions escalated further after U.S. forces reportedly seized an Iranian merchant vessel accused of attempting to bypass the embargo—marking a direct enforcement step with potential military implications.

Earlier this year, Iran also moved to restrict or close access to the strait at the outset of its confrontation involving the United States and Israel, raising concerns over the vulnerability of global energy flows.

Analysis: Oil leverage and strategic signaling

Arif’s statement reflects a broader Iranian strategy: linking freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to its ability to export oil without restriction.

By framing maritime security as conditional rather than guaranteed, Tehran is signaling that continued economic pressure could translate into disruptions affecting global markets. The message is aimed not only at Washington but also at major oil-importing nations that rely on stable transit through the strait.

The warning also aligns with recent Iranian legislative and military signals suggesting a more assertive posture in the Gulf, including proposals to regulate transit and impose conditions on foreign vessels.

For global markets, the implications are immediate. Even limited disruptions or heightened risk premiums in the strait can drive volatility in oil prices, shipping costs, and insurance rates.

For the United States and its allies, the challenge lies in balancing enforcement of sanctions with the risk of escalation. Direct confrontations at sea—such as vessel seizures—raise the likelihood of miscalculation in an already fragile environment.

Outlook

With both sides hardening their positions, the Strait of Hormuz is once again emerging as a central pressure point in global geopolitics.

Absent de-escalation, the situation risks evolving from economic confrontation into a broader security crisis—one that could extend far beyond the Gulf and directly impact global energy stability.

#Iran #StraitOfHormuz #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #USIran #MiddleEast #Breaking


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