Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj  | Sulaimani, Iraq | 10 May 2026 --Long before NATO existed. Long before the Cold War. Long before the wars in Ukraine, the rise of China, or the modern struggle between maritime and continental powers. One British geopolitical thinker predicted the strategic logic that would define the modern world.

His name was Sir Halford Mackinder.

And more than a century later, global politics is still unfolding along the lines he described.

More than a century ago, Halford Mackinder warned that whoever controlled Eastern Europe and the Eurasian heartland could dominate the world. Today, from Ukraine to the Indo-Pacific, global geopolitics is unfolding almost exactly along the lines he predicted.

Geography determines power.

Not ideology.
Not morality.
Not political slogans.

Power ultimately flows from control over strategic space.

Mackinder believed the center of global power lay not in oceans or colonies, but deep inside Eurasia — a vast continental zone he called the “Heartland.” This region, stretching broadly across Russia and Central Eurasia, represented what he viewed as the strategic pivot of world history. His most famous formula became legendary:

“Who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World Island;
who rules the World Island commands the world.”

At the time, many considered the theory abstract or overly deterministic. History would prove otherwise.

Why Mackinder’s Theory Still Shapes Modern Geopolitics

Mackinder’s central insight was that Eurasia represented the core of global power because it contained immense landmass, resources, population potential, and strategic depth. He viewed world politics as a permanent struggle between two competing types of power:

• Maritime powers (“sea powers”)
• Continental powers (“land powers”)

Sea powers included Britain historically and later the United States. Their strength depended on naval dominance, trade routes, financial systems, and control of coastal regions. Land powers centered around Russia and Eurasian empires capable of mobilizing vast territorial depth and internal resources. The greatest nightmare for maritime powers, according to Mackinder, was the emergence of a unified Eurasian bloc strong enough to challenge sea dominance globally.

This is why Mackinder became obsessed with preventing strategic cooperation between Germany and Russia. He believed that if German industrial power merged with Russian territorial depth and resources, the balance of global power could permanently shift against the Anglo-American world. This fear shaped much of 20th-century Western grand strategy. And arguably still does.

Ukraine Is the Modern Mackinder Battlefield

More than 100 years later, Mackinder’s theory explains much of the geopolitical importance of Ukraine. Ukraine sits in the strategic gateway between Europe and the Eurasian heartland. Whoever dominates Eastern Europe gains influence over the broader balance between continental and maritime power systems. From this perspective, the war in Ukraine is not only about nationalism, sovereignty, or ideology.

It is also about preventing the consolidation of Eurasian power. For NATO and the United States, maintaining influence in Eastern Europe prevents Russia from fully reasserting dominance across the heartland. For Moscow, losing strategic influence in Ukraine risks pushing hostile military infrastructure directly against the geographic core of Russian power. This is precisely the kind of geopolitical collision Mackinder warned about.

The Rise of China Makes Mackinder Relevant Again

Mackinder originally feared a Russia-Germany axis. Today, many strategists fear a Russia-China axis instead. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Eurasian rail corridors, Arctic expansion, energy partnerships, and growing alignment with Russia all point toward a potential reorganization of continental power across Eurasia.

This is why the Indo-Pacific strategy, NATO expansion, sanctions regimes, and maritime alliances increasingly function as interconnected parts of a larger geopolitical containment structure. The United States remains fundamentally a maritime superpower. China and Russia increasingly operate as continental powers seeking to reduce dependence on Western-controlled sea routes and financial systems. Again, Mackinder’s framework remains strikingly relevant.

The Middle East and Kurdistan in the Heartland Struggle

The Middle East also occupies a critical position within Mackinder’s logic. The region functions as a bridge between Europe, Asia, and Africa — what Mackinder called the “World Island.” Control over Middle Eastern energy corridors, ports, pipelines, trade routes, and security architecture directly affects the balance between Eurasian and maritime power systems. This explains why the region has remained central to global conflict for more than a century.

For Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, geography remains both an opportunity and a curse. Iraq sits at the intersection of Iranian influence, Turkish ambitions, Gulf competition, American military presence, and wider Eurasian trade calculations.

The Kurdistan Region occupies a particularly sensitive strategic zone connecting Türkiye, Iraq, Syria, and Iran simultaneously. This means Kurdish politics cannot be understood only through domestic dynamics. Kurdish geopolitics is deeply tied to broader struggles between regional and global powers competing for influence across Eurasia. In many ways, Kurdistan lies directly on one of the world’s most important geopolitical fault lines.

Mackinder Predicted the End of Isolation

One of Mackinder’s most important insights was that technology would gradually eliminate geographic isolation. Railways, industrialization, and infrastructure would allow continental powers to organize space more efficiently than ever before. Today, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, cyberwarfare, satellite systems, and energy corridors are accelerating this process even further. The geopolitical competition is no longer only military.

It is technological.
Economic.
Informational.
Logistical.

The struggle for Eurasia now includes:

• Semiconductor supply chains
• AI dominance
• Maritime chokepoints
• Rare earth minerals
• Digital infrastructure
• Energy transit routes
• Cyber influence operations

Modern geopolitics is essentially Mackinder updated for the technological age.

The World Is Entering Mackinder’s “Global Civil War”

Mackinder warned that once the world became fully interconnected, conflicts between major powers would intensify because there would be no “empty spaces” left for expansion. Today, every strategic region is contested.

Ukraine.
Taiwan.
The South China Sea.
The Arctic.
The Middle East.
Cyberspace.
Outer space.

The world is increasingly moving toward systemic geopolitical confrontation between competing power blocs. This does not necessarily guarantee world war. But it does mean the era of uncontested American unipolar dominance is fading. A multipolar geopolitical order is emerging — exactly the type of strategic environment Mackinder believed would produce intense competition over Eurasia.

Why Mackinder Still Matters

Many modern observers dismiss geopolitics as outdated realism. But the reality is that geography still shapes strategy.

States still compete over strategic corridors.
Military bases still matter.
Energy routes still matter.
Sea lanes still matter.
Buffer zones still matter.

And Eurasia remains the central arena of global power competition. More than a century after Mackinder wrote The Geographical Pivot of History, his core insight still haunts international politics: The struggle for control of the world ultimately revolves around control of Eurasia. And that struggle is accelerating once again.

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