By Dr. Pshtiwan Faraj | Kurdish Policy Analysis “Kurdistan Region in the midst of regional changes”
From post–Cold War protection to an era of geopolitical uncertainty, the Kurdistan Region confronts shifting regional power balances, internal transformation, and the future of Kurdish autonomy.
It is obvious that the Kurdistan Region was established 34 years ago as the first experience of independent Kurdistan governance after the end of the Cold War by two main forces (PKK and PUK). This region has been protected under the political and security umbrella of the West and the sacrifices of the Kurdish people in the region. However, after 34 years of this experience, major changes have occurred inside and outside the region, Iraq and the world.
Regional and global environmental change
At the end of the last century, when our region was created, there was a global wave of support for the oppressed nations. The West's sense of victory in the Cold War strengthened its desire to support democracy in international politics Take advantage of this new global environment and create a semi-independent power. Thus, the umbrella of Western protection protected the region from the threats of Iraq and the countries of the region. It continued to a large extent after the fall of Saddam Hussein (2003), especially when the threat of ISIS closed the door to our region and the West helped the Peshmerga forces to counter and remove this real threat.
For various reasons, the West is neither willing nor able to play its former role. On the one hand, the Europeans, who were previously a major partner of the region, are reorganizing themselves for the threats posed to Europe after the Ukraine war. The United States, which has been the main ally of the region, has changed its political and strategic doctrine and is less focused on the region and the Middle East. Thus, Kurdistan can no longer rely on the assistance of Western allies as it used to and may need a new political and security structure to protect and sustain the regions more than ever.
The emergence of major regional powers
In the 34 years of our region, despite the strong presence of regional countries (especially Iran and Turkey) in the internal equations of the region, but never - due to the strong presence of the United States and its allies - have not played a decisive role. This fact was especially evident after the fall of Saddam Hussein, when the Kurdish people freely determined the shape of their relationship with the new Iraq without real pressure.
However, in the past two decades, especially after the first official US withdrawal (2010), regional forces have played a significant role in the region and directly or indirectly influenced the geopolitical situation in our region. Iran and Turkey played an important role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and many other countries because of their emergence as a capable regional power.
Failure to properly read regional and global changes. It led our region to a strategic mistake such as the referendum that eventually weakened the region's position in the region.
On the other hand, after October 7, 2023, Israel intensified its strategic direction towards the east and more countries and redesigned its strategic and security doctrine. Thus, three regional powers appeared in the region The West has been formed in the region on its own, and it is likely to determine the political equation and relations in the region and in Kurdistan for many years to come.
The need for change in the Kurdistan Region
As you can see, our region is undergoing significant geopolitical changes, which have also affected the internal countries of the region such as Iran, Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel. In this situation, can Kurdistan as a region manage itself as if nothing had happened? Is this new situation a threat or an opportunity for our region? Will Kurdistan and our region be protected if the classical form of governance remains?
Politically, the region has never been as divided and polarized as it is now since the merger of the two administrations in The spirit of cooperation and coordination that existed after 2003 by President Mam Jalal and Mr. Massoud is now at its lowest level. On the other hand, the geographical and political marginalization of the economy created huge cracks in government institutions and practically divided them. Finally, instead of being strong and united in this delicate situation in our region, our region has become even weaker. Even for the first time, the future of the region itself is being discussed outside the regions!! In fact, the tendency to hegemony and authoritarianism on the one hand and the attempt to self-destruction and rejection of the imposed power on the other hand has put the region in front of a dangerous future.
A vision for the future
It is obvious that the existence of a comprehensive internal crisis is a characteristic of most political systems and governance, but one of its continuous characteristics. What is different here is that nations recognize it in times of crisis and try to find a fundamental solution.
Kurdistan Region, Kurdish governance, Iraq politics, Middle East geopolitics, Kurdish autonomy, KRG future, Kurdistan regional changes, Iraq federalism, Kurdish politics, regional transformation
#Kurdistan #KRG #Iraq #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #Kurds #RegionalPolitics #Governance #WestAsia #Autonomy
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